Northwest Indiana's 1st District is the only seat in the state rated competitive for Democrats — and barely. With a Cook PVI of just D+1, this former labor stronghold has been narrowing for years. Incumbent Frank Mrvan, a steelworker's son turned appropriations workhorse, won by just 5.6 points in 2024 after nearly losing in 2022, when Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green closed the gap to 52.8%.
The Republican playbook is straightforward: pour national money in, nationalize the race, and hope the district's slow rightward drift continues. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) started running attack ads in March — months before the primary — hitting Mrvan on immigration and, improbably, his steel record. Challenger Barb Regnitz, a Porter County insurance executive, has loaned her campaign $1.5 million but has raised only about $54,000 from actual donors. The race will test whether self-funding can substitute for grassroots support in a district where organized labor still runs a real ground game.
The irony that hangs over this race: Mrvan is one of the most pro-tariff Democrats in Congress. He co-chairs the Congressional Steel Caucus and supports the same trade protections Republicans champion nationally. On the issue this district cares about most, the partisan attack lines don't land cleanly.
This was also the seat Trump's redistricting push would have eliminated. The proposed map would have stretched IN-01 from two counties to nine, making it unwinnable for any Democrat. The Indiana Senate killed that plan 31-19 — with 21 Republicans defying their own president. If that vote had gone differently, there would be no IN-01 race to watch. The fact that there is one may be the most consequential act of the Indiana legislators who voted no.