House District 73 covers eastern Bartholomew County, portions of Decatur and Jennings counties, and the largest share of Shelby County, including Shelbyville. This is deep-red territory -- Trump carried Shelby County 72%, Decatur County 78%, and Jennings County 79% in 2024.
The Meltzer-Comstock rematch is now a three-peat -- the same two candidates facing each other for the third consecutive cycle. Comstock's vote share improved from 10.8% (2022) to 25.3% (2024), but that improvement came partly from the field narrowing from three candidates to two. He has never cracked 30% in any primary.
Meltzer's redistricting vote is the only variable that could theoretically change the dynamic. She was one of 12 House Republicans who voted against Trump's push, stating she "did not believe that redrawing congressional maps mid-decade was necessary or wanted by most of those in my district." But Comstock is not an organized, well-funded challenger -- he is a Honda factory worker who has run for the same seat three times. The most telling detail: when the Republican parties of all four counties moved to challenge a candidate's ballot eligibility, they challenged a different candidate -- not Meltzer. The party apparatus is defending the incumbent, not punishing her.